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Old 07-25-2015, 07:18 PM
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Default Re: New Study Is Latest to Find That Higher Rates of Gun Ownership Lead to Higher Rat

Now, since we now have ACTUAL full access to the article to fact/procedure-check, here is a separate article showing how this study falls short and FAILS to show what it claims .... and as already pointed out in this thread to be where the devil is often in the details over 'studies' like that, it shows there are issues in their CONTROL variables.
"But their paper (available here) isn’t testing what they claim. It isn’t testing whether increased gun ownership causes crime rates to increase. The study is far too simplistic and doesn’t include even the basic control variables that are typically included in other crime studies.

Here is a simple example. Many people point to the fact that the UK has both a lower homicide and gun ownership rate than the United States. The claim is often made then that the reason that they have a lower homicide rate is because they have fewer guns. However, this ignores the fact that the UK homicide rate actually went up after their 1997 handgun ban or after their other very strict earlier gun control regulations. The UK homicide rate still remained low relative to the US, but it was higher than it otherwise would have been.

The point here is simple: there are lots of reasons why the UK homicide rate was lower than that in the US before they even had gun control. The question that needs to be asked is how the UK homicide rate changed relative to that in the US after its gun control regulations went into effect. To do this, you have to control for the fact that the UK had a much lower homicide rate to begin with. Statistically you do that by having what are called geographic “fixed effects” (dummy variables that pick up the average difference in each jurisdiction that you are examining). Any test would also do the same thing by year so as to account for any national trends in crime rates. So, for example, crime might have been falling nationally, but was it falling relatively more in those states that were getting more gun ownership.

The controls that are being used in this paper can’t begin to account for the differences in crime rates."
More at Evaluating new research "Firearm Ownership and Violent Crime*in the U.S.: An Ecological Study" By Monuteaux, Lee, Hemenway, Mannix, Fleegler - Crime Prevention Research Center crimeresearch.org
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Last edited by Joe Shoe; 07-25-2015 at 07:34 PM..
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